Signal & Rauschen

Election polls change politics, but who is using them and how? The MIZ-project Signal & Rauschen checks election forecasts, calculates new models and describes the business behind them.

The idea: We view historical and fresh survey data to provide a weighted election prognosis across institutes and considering various parameters, with the help of statistical models and experts. In addition to our core product, the electoral forecast, Signal & Rauschen delivers up-to-date journalistic analyzes and background stories on the state of the political debate.

Why are we doing this? In the run-up to elections, polls and forecasts play a critical role in media and journalistic reports. However, audiences often question their reliability and independent approach. The last two US presidential elections, the Brexit referendum and the latest federal elections in Germany proved that prognoses frequently fail – or at least this is the public opinion.

The project team

Christian Fahrenbach
I am working as a journalist and teacher in New York and Germany. My studies include a Bachelor’s degree in Business (a long time ago) and a Master’s degree in Journalism (a bit later). That’s why I’m happy to finally use my expertise from the Excel-kindergarten now. I earned a PhD degree in Communication Science at the University of Hohenheim and spent some time in New York afterwards to “treat myself”. From this time on the city never let me go although my heart still beats for my old home town Witzenhausen. After all, the German championship in cherry stone spitting was one of my reasons to move to New York. But this is a different story. You can find out more about me on Twitter.

Dominik Wurnig
I am a journalist from Vienna working in Berlin. As a child I planned a future in TV, but luckily the internet was invented and nowadays I am allowed to wear hoodies at work and have uncombed hair. I studied Theater Science in Vienna and Berlin and Journalism in New York. Today I like to tell stories about good ideas with the help of data and videos. If you have one, you can contact me on Facebook or Twitter.